Implied probability
also: implied odds · break-even probability
The win chance a moneyline implies, with the book's margin still in it.
Formula
-150 -> 150 / 250 = 60%; +130 -> 100 / 230 = 43.5%Convert both sides of a moneyline and they add up to more than 100%. The excess is the book's margin. Remove it, by scaling both sides down, and you have the market's fair estimate.
get_odds returns the implied probability of each book's closing moneyline next to the price.
The common mistake
Comparing your model with an implied probability that still contains the margin makes every bet look worse than it is.
Where to get it
Related
Implied probability from the API
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